European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Trade Policy

Europe

Trade Policy

Question A:

A baseline US tariff of 10% on all European imported goods would have substantially damaging economic consequences for many countries in Europe.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Rather than responding to threatened tariffs with retaliatory measures, unilaterally opening EU markets to US exports would deliver better outcomes for European industry.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

January 23, 2025

Europe’s Defense Sector

Europe

Europe’s Defense Sector

Question A:

The likely need for increased European public investment in defense should come with substantial reallocations of public budgets at the national and EU levels.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Greater use of joint EU-level procurement of military equipment and defense research/innovation would promote substantially enhanced capacity in Europe's defense industry.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Increased defense spending would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth in Europe over the next five years.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

December 19, 2024

Global Warming

Europe

Global Warming

This European survey examines (a) On the basis of current climate policy commitments and potential technology and market responses, my current best estimate for global warming is that average global temperatures by 2100 will rise to no more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

December 4, 2024

Economics and Elections

Europe

Economics and Elections

This European survey examines (a) A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment; (b) Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

November 21, 2024

Institutions and Prosperity

Europe

Institutions and Prosperity

This European survey examines (a) The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes; (b) On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government; (c) Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

October 22, 2024

Constraints on Innovation in Europe

Europe

Constraints on Innovation in Europe

This European survey examines (a) Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth; b) European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe; c) The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

October 3, 2024

Corporate Social Responsibility

Europe

Corporate Social Responsibility

This European survey examines (a) In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits, (b) In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital, (c) There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

September 12, 2024

Regulating AI

Europe

Regulating AI

This European survey examines (a) US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies; b) Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment

Regulation, Competition, & Market Power

June 27, 2024

Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles

Europe

Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles

This European survey examines (a) The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years; (b) The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers; (c) Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

May 30, 2024

Europe’s Single Market

Europe

Europe’s Single Market

This European survey examines (a) Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years; (b) The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

May 16, 2024